Participating in the prediction game today is a bad idea. We all know how accurate weather forecasts are, yet it is exactly what they have always done.
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BOM’s Given Us the Forecast, Decided Our Plans for the Next Six Months
It’s still worth considering what the future may contain given rumours that another La Nina weather phenomenon, which will bring heavy rain to most of the east coast, will coincide with a negative Indian Ocean dipole, which will bring heavy rain to much of the west coast.
We already know that the rest of 2022 will be another wet one, but how wet will it get? Here are some tips on how ambitious you should be with your future ambitions as the summer appears to be drawing near.
The Summer’s Climate
Aussies are more than ready for a vacation after years of flooding and a summer of horrific fires, and they are eager to return to “normal” – whatever that may entail.
Unfortunately, the Bureau of Meteorology has weighed in with their long-range projection for 2022–2023, which will undoubtedly dash our hopes once more.
The forecast aims to foretell the types of weather patterns we’ll experience between now and April of the next year, and it doesn’t look good. The “peak time” for extreme weather in Australia during this season includes floods, cyclones, heat waves, bushfires, and violent thunderstorms.
According to the study, Australia may anticipate “an elevated risk of extensive flooding” in the eastern and northern regions of the nation, as well as a “usual” risk of dangerous thunderstorms.
They also mention that other regions of the country could see heat waves, bushfires, and grass fires, while the south will be particularly humid.
To clarify, according to the BOM’s recently updated climate outlook overview, “above median rainfall” is “at least fairly probable” to occur across eastern Australia, the north, and the inland Northern Territory in the upcoming weeks. However, rainfall in the majority of Western Australia will be below average throughout that time.
While temperatures are anticipated to be hotter than median in Tasmania, Western Australia, and the northern tropical coast from November through January, rainfall is projected to be “above median” in eastern Australia. Though it is anticipated that it would be colder during this time in southern Queensland and New South Wales.
A “higher than 73% possibility” of at least 11 tropical cyclones are expected between now and April, which is about usual for this time of year, according to the BOM. They think that this year’s cyclone season will begin early.
NSW, VIC, and QLD may likely take it easy this season in terms of flames, but the central NT and northern WA will need to be on the lookout.
While cautioning that heat waves may continue longer, be warmer at night, and be more humid, especially in the south, they say that “we may not see extreme heat days compared to some recent years.”
Why Is There So Much Rain?
We’re all in for a washout now because those who produce fossil fuels and the governments they find love money too much. Simply said, it’s climate change.
The BOM has stated that, on average, climate change is leading to more extreme weather occurrences, even if they are hesitant to directly link any particular climate event to too much carbon dioxide being pumped into the atmosphere. This explains how we can have heat waves and bushfires in addition to high humidity and a lot of rain.
The La Nina phenomenon, which has persisted over the past three years, is bringing cold water across the pacific to mix with the warmer waters surrounding Australia, producing unintended and moist offspring that we all have to deal with in the east.
On the opposite side of the nation, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole is having a similar effect, sending exceptionally cold water from Africa and India to mix with warmer water off the west coasts of Australia and Indonesia, causing a lot of rain.
To be thorough, Australia is likewise experiencing a favourable phase of the “Southern Annual Mode,” or SAM. Here, powerful westerly winds blow south over Australia toward Antarctica during the summer, pushing storms from the north through the south. Thankfully, this normally only lasts for a few weeks, but as this event develops in the near future, locations from central Queensland to Tasmania are at risk.
Therefore, if you’re preparing for a hot non-gender-conforming summer, you might want to carefully consider bringing an umbrella or staying inside.